A new study measured exactly who AI is squeezing out.
Real payroll data, not a survey, from before ChatGPT existed through this summer, to see who's actually losing hiring ground to AI.
19%. Up from 15% a year ago.
Workers 22-25 in the most AI-exposed jobs are hiring 19% below where they'd otherwise be. Experienced workers: no gap at all.
It's not layoffs, it's hiring
The adjustment happens before anyone gets fired. Jobs just quietly stop opening for the youngest applicants first.
Codified knowledge vs. tacit knowledge
AI eats what you could teach from a manual. It can't touch what you only get from someone correcting you, in person, for years.
Translate it to this industry
A shot list format is codified. Knowing a take is right when the numbers say it shouldn't be, that's tacit. AI can't fake that yet.
The honest catch
If young hiring keeps shrinking, the mentorship chain that builds the next generation of this eventually runs dry. Real risk, not fake doom.
Are You Still Teaching Anyone?
Comment: are you actively mentoring someone right now?